Bill Belichick gives insight into his fourth-down decision-making against Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs v New England Patriots
Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

New England passed up some opportunities late in the game.

The third quarter of their Week 15 game against the Kansas City Chiefs was a rough one for the New England Patriots. Entering it down 14-10, they were outscored 13-0 and lost their left tackle — the second starting O-lineman to depart — with an injury.

As a consequence of all this, and other circumstances that accumulated throughout the season as a whole up to point, it seemed head coach Bill Belichick waved the white flag in the early fourth quarter. With his team down 17 points and facing a 4th-and-3 at its own 42-yard line, Belichick decided to send Bryce Baringer and the punt team onto the field.

He did so again to end his team’s next possession. Still down 27-10, Baringer and company again were called upon on a 4th-and-4 from the New England 33.

The Patriots ended up losing the game with a final score of 27-17, which in turn raised questions about Belichick’s decision-making in those two situations. After the game, he gave insight his reasoning behind those two punts.

“It’s not a question of not wanting to go for it, it’s a question of doing what you feel like is best at that point in time,” he said. “There’s a lot of things that go into a decision. It’s not one thing.”

Belichick explained that the injuries along the offensive line played a big part in his decision to punt rather than be aggressive on fourth down and already behind multiple scores. The Patriots had not just lost the aforementioned left tackle, Conor McDermott, to a head injury, they also were down left guard Cole Strange who had to be carted off after hurting his knee in the early second period.

As a consequence of the continued personnel movement up front against one of the most disruptive pass-rushing defenses in the NFL, quarterback Bailey Zappe was under constant pressure and sacked four times. New England also averaged just 3.3 yards per rushing attempt on the day.

“At that point we had lost three starters. Worried about the pass protection. Worried about being able to execute in that situation,” Belichick said. “Felt like we were playing good defense. Get the ball back on a turnover, three-and-out, get the ball in better field position.”

At least on the second of those fourth-down punts, Belichick’s calculation paid off. Linebacker Jahlani Tavai caught an interception on the very next play, giving the Patriots the ball at the Kansas City 29-yard line. Two plays later, running back Kevin Harris found the end zone from 18 yards out to reduce New England’s deficit to 10 points.

Belichick being conservative on fourth down this season is nothing new. In fact, in neutral game situations (i.e. with the win probability calculated between 20 and 100 percent), the Patriots are ranked last in the NFL this season on fourth down.


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They are one of only two teams in the league with a go-rate of below 20 percent when a potential win probability gain is on the line. For comparison, the league-leading Philadelphia Eagles are at almost 70 percent in such a setting.

Largely in part due to the Patriots’ offensive struggles in combination with a strong defense, Belichick passed up opportunities to be aggressive on multiple occasions this season. When he did get aggressive against the Chiefs, however, he was rewarded.

Midway through the second quarter, and with his team down 7-0, Belichick kept his offense on the field on a 4th-and-2 in the Kansas City red zone. The play resulted in a 16-yard touchdown pass from Zappe to tight end Hunter Henry to tie the game.

“We felt that was the right thing to do at that point in time,” Belichick said about that decision. “Felt like we had a good play. Bailey made a good throw. Hunter made a good catch. Just felt like we had a good play.”

Whether the Patriots could have had similar results on those other fourth downs is impossible to know; their season-long success rate of 40.9 percent in those situations, ranked 29th in the league, suggests otherwise. That being said, for a team that entered the game at 3-10 and no longer in a position to make the playoffs, those decisions did look curious.

At least for Belichick, considering the circumstances, they were not.

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