We spoke with SB Nation’s Chiefs blog about the Patriots’ Week 15 opponent.
Since their last game — a 21-18 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers last Thursday — the New England Patriots have officially been eliminated from playoff contention. But while their upcoming matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs will therefore not be able to salvage their season, it will still be an interesting affair pitching the NFL’s most recent dynasty against what might become its next.
To get a better understanding of who the Patriots will be up against in Week 15, we exchanged questions with Tom Childs of Pats Pulpit’s sister site Arrowhead Pride — the SB Nation community for all things Chiefs. Here is what he told us about the upcoming game.
1. It’s not often you see an Andy Reid-coached team drop three of four games exiting the bye week. Patrick Mahomes is still playing elite ball, so how did the Chiefs get here?
It would take me all weekend to fully answer this question but I’ll try my best to summarize. The main culprits for the Chiefs’ offense not looking like the Chiefs’ offense is down to one simple thing: a lack of attention to detail.
A lack of attention to detail with alignments, route running, offensive line technique, ball protection and most notably pass catching. You name it and the Chiefs have been flat-out bad at it. Somehow despite all of this, Patrick Mahomes has still played pretty well. Yeah, he has had some uncharacteristic moments but for the most part, he’s been as solid as ever.
The season’s biggest surprise was that it took so long for him to lose his cool completely. Most mortals would have exploded weeks ago with what he has had to deal with.
2. How has Travis Kelce looked this season? Is he as dangerous as ever? Or is Father Time catching up with him at 34-years-old?
A lot has been made of Kelce’s performance this year. Partly because he hasn’t been as flashy, partly because he has made costly mistakes, but mainly down to his girlfriend. You may or may not have heard of her.
There was a patch in the middle of the season when teams found some relative success against Kelce. Thanks to the inability of the Chiefs receivers to get open and Andy Reid’s lack of a commitment to the run game, opposing defenses found it easier to double Travis Kelce and just let the rest of the offense be bad. Thankfully, the Chiefs are starting to figure some things out and that is enabling Kelce to look more Kelce again.
And despite the “struggles” of Kelce, he is still only 104 yards shy of his eighth consecutive 1,000-yard receiving season.
3. Only the 49ers have a higher rush EPA than the Chiefs since Week 11. What’s been the catalyst for their success?
Well, thanks for bringing that to my attention as I was unaware.
There has been a shift in how the Chiefs are running the football of late but I hadn’t realised it had been so successful. The change has started with the line. Typically the Chiefs have adopted an outside zone scheme out of shotgun. This has put a tremendous amount of stress on linemen to hold their blocks. It also requires the running backs to have great vision— a trait that neither Clyde Edwards-Helaire nor Isiah Pacheco has in abundance, although it must be said that Pacheco’s is getting better week on week.
More recently, the Chiefs have used counters and power a lot more. This has enabled Pacheco to get north-south a lot quicker and for him to use his unusually powerful legs to churn out many yards after contact.
The change in running philosophy was long overdue and I’m pleased that the Chiefs are steering into what works — instead of putting square pegs in round holes.
4. Patriots fans and coaches have raved about Steve Spagnuolo’s aggressive, versatile defense all week. Are there any cracks New England can exploit?
The interior defensive line outside of Chris Jones has been found wanting a few times this year. Tershawn Wharton and Derrick Nnadi have been fine contributors for the Chiefs for several years but they are starting to be figured out. Running at either one of those two would be a good start for the Patriots.
The Bills had some success passing the ball early on the Chiefs. In particular, they picked on Nick Bolton. To be fair to Bolton, he had just returned from a lengthy absence so I’m willing to put it down to rust. We Chiefs fans saw the damage that JuJu Smith-Schuster can do in the middle of the field last year. Trying to exploit that particular matchup could prove fruitful.
As you’ve probably worked out, I am nitpicking here. The truth is that the Chiefs’ defense has been excellent all season and has no glaring weaknesses. Without their performances, the Chiefs would most likely be a 3- or 4-win team. That’s how good they’ve been: they’re keeping Travis Kelce, Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes in playoff contention.
5. The Chiefs are currently 8-point road favorites, per DraftKings Sportsbook. How do the Patriots pull off an upset?
By cracking out the game plan from the first half of the 2019 AFC Championship game. I don’t know why I decided to bring up painful memories but that first half will always stick out for me. I know the Chiefs ended up scoring 31 points in that game, but if it wasn’t for that first-half performance, the Chiefs may have ended up with 50. Now I am aware that I am being ridiculous because neither team are anywhere near the level that they were at that particular season, but I still don’t think it is beyond the realms of possibility for Bill Belichick to have his way against this version of the Chiefs offense.
The big difference though between then and now is on the other side of the ball. The Patriots no longer have the GOAT and the Chiefs no longer have a pitiful defense with the likes of Orlando Scandrick playing cornerback in a bend-and-almost-certainly-break version of Cover 2. This is where I struggle to give the Patriots a chance. The Chiefs’ defense has been so good that I find it hard that Baily Zappe and Ezekiel Elliot are the duo to crack it.
Maybe there’s some arrogance floating around but I prefer Mahomes’ chances against Belichick than I do Zappe’s against Spags. Chiefs win 19-9.
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